Project future emissions and plan reduction strategies

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Emissions Forecast

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The Forecast tab allows you to project future emissions and plan reduction strategies based on historical data and targets.

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Explore the Forecasting Module

• View Scope 3 emissions projections from now through 2050 based on the reduction targets set by Organizations in your portfolio.
• Compare different scenarios (Optimistic, Base, Pessimistic) against your target reduction goals to understand if you are pacing.

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Configure and Compare Scenarios

• Optimistic: In this demo, configuration assumes 100% attainment of any targets applying to Organizations, starting with their Science-Based Targets (SBTi) or annual report commitments, and falling back to other targets that could apply, such as an Organization's headquarter country's Net Zero Target.
• Pessimistic: Only considers SBTi-validated or annual report targets, and discounts the rate of progress (e.g., achieving only 90% of a stated target by the pledged date). If no target is disclosed, emissions are assumed to grow unabated with spend.

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Identify Organizations Driving Your Forecast

• See emissions forecasts by Organization extending to 2050 under your chosen scenario configuration.
• Track which Organizations have pledged to reduce emissions-and which remain "unabated" with no stated goals.

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Mitigate Disclosure Gaps

• Identify Organizations not reporting all relevant Scope 3 categories for their industry
• Engage with Organizations to address these missing disclosures early to avoid unexpected emission spikes later

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Prioritize Engagement Based on Future Emissions

• Pinpoint Organizations contributing most to your emissions in 2025 or 2050 who also lack near-term or net zero targets.
• Use these insights to focus your engagement on Organizations with the highest potential to reduce your overall footprint moving forward.

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Understanding Forecast Methodology

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Why Forecast Starting Points May Differ from Calculate Dashboard Totals

You may notice that the starting point emissions values in your forecast scenarios don't exactly match the total emissions sum displayed on the Calculate dashboard. This is expected behavior and stems from methodological differences between the two calculation approaches:

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Calculate Dashboard (Yearly Spend):

• Uses industry total upstream emission factors applied to total spend
• Provides a single emissions value per organization using industry averages
• Shows total emissions across all scopes combined

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Forecast (COEF):

• Uses a hybrid emission factor approach for more accurate projections
• Combines organization-specific factors (where disclosed) with industry factors (as fallback)
• Splits emissions by scope to enable pathway-specific forecasting
• More granular approach that separates Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for better target tracking

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When Disparities Occur: The difference is most pronounced when there's sufficient data to calculate organization-specific Scope 1 or Scope 2 emission factors, but insufficient data for a comprehensive total upstream emission factor. In these cases:

• Scope 1/2 factors "pull down" the overall emissions in the forecast starting point
• Calculate dashboard continues using industry averages for total upstream emissions
• This results in different baseline values, but the forecast methodology provides more accurate, actionable projections

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This hybrid approach ensures that forecasts leverage the most accurate emission factors available for each organization and scope, enabling better target validation and reduction pathway planning.

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